Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26754/ojs_ried/ijds.43Palabras clave:
América central, Modelo de simulación de cultivo, CropSyst, Seguridad, seguridad alimentaria, subsistencia, subtropicalResumen
La rotación maíz-frijol es la fuente de alimentos de los pequeños productores de Honduras. Se ha determinado el impacto del cambio climático (comparado 2070-2099 con 1961-1990) mediante un modelo de simulación de la rotación en localidades de Honduras de distintas zonas climáticas y altitudes. La baja productividad unida a las incertidumbres sobre el clima futuro generan un elevado riesgo sobre la seguridad alimentaria. El modelo de simulación de sistemas de cultivo CropSyst se ha calibrado y validado con datos de campo del Zamorano, después se ha aplicado al clima base y a los escenarios futuros de varias simulaciones de GCMs y escenarios de emisión, aplicando el generador de datos diarios ClimGen. Los resultados indican una gran incertidumbre, pero en general una reducción del rendimiento del 0% al 22% en las zonas bajas, más adecuadas para el cultivo y un aumento en las zonas más frías, en zonas montañosas donde la agricultura debe evitar la erosión mediante la aplicación de técnicas de conservación del suelo. Futuros estudios son necesarios para investigar sobre como reducir el impacto y buscar estrategias de adaptación en las prácticas agrícolas.
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Diaz-Ambrona, C., Gigena, R., Mendoza, C. (2013). Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras. Iberoamerican Journal of Development Studies, 2 (1): 4-22
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Derechos de autor 2013 Carlos G.H. Diaz-Ambrona, Ruben Gigena, Carlos Onan Mendoza
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
