El policy Delphi en la práctica: decisiones críticas para su diseño y aplicación en ejercicios de prospectiva
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26754/ojs_ais/ais.20254712353Palabras clave:
Prospectiva, Diseño de Proyecto, Futuro, MetodologíaResumen
El método Delphi que se diseñó para indagar acerca del futuro de la tecnología a mediados del siglo XX, tiene una variante llamada policy Delphi que se desarrolló en 1970 para incluir las ideas de diferentes grupos de interés en ejercicios de prospectiva. Una revisión de más de cien ejercicios que utilizaron esta técnica hasta 2025, permite una reflexión acerca de su implementación práctica y decisiones cruciales durante su diseño, ejecución y fases de análisis.
Se han identificado catorce decisiones cruciales para el diseño la ejecución, así como el análisis de los ejercicios de prospectiva que comprenden el equilibrio en áreas como consideraciones teóricas, participación de todos los grupos de interés, gestión de la incertidumbre, amplitud del análisis, enfoques metodológicos, aprovechamiento de la experiencia colectiva para analizar instrumentos y decisiones políticas, experiencias basadas en casos y la toma de decisiones atendiendo al pensamiento dominante.
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