Simulation of the population of Navarre (2025-2050) using a stochastic model
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26754/ojs_geoph/geoph.20257711633Keywords:
Population, Montecarlo Simulation, Stochastic differential equation, Discrete variablesAbstract
In this paper, we present the methodology used in a study currently being drafted to project demographic evolution between 2025 and 2050. Traditional approaches in geography tend to be based on fixed growth rates or on component analysis. In contrast, this study uses a Monte Carlo simulation model combined with stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which allows for the incorporation of the uncertainty inherent in demographic systems. The objective of the proposed method is to estimate the probability that the population will reach a certain number, in this case in the Autonomous Community of Navarre, in the period between 2025 and 2050. The choice of a stochastic model responds to the need to treat time and demographic variables as discrete values, thus capturing the dynamic nature of the population with greater precision.
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